is it withdrawing from the world. In fact， the US has made clear its intention to compete robustly， though in a different mode than before.
Even short of outright conflict， a prolonged period of tension and uncertainty will be extremely damaging. Many serious international problems like the Korean situation， nuclear non－proliferation， and climate change cannot be tackled without the full participation of the US and China， together with other countries. In economic terms the loss will be not just a percentage point or two of world GDP， but the huge benefits of globalised markets and production chains， and the sharing of knowledge and breakthroughs that enable all countries to progress faster together.
We should therefore do our utmost to avoid going down the path of conflict， and causing enmity on both sides that will last for generations. Of course， it is the duty of security and defence establishments to think the unthinkable， and plan for worst case scenarios. But it is the responsibility of political leaders to find solutions to head off these extreme outcomes.
This is hard， because leaders on both sides are facing powerful domestic pressures. In the US， the political mood is deeply divided and disgruntled. Large segments of American society have lost confidence in globalisation and multilateralism. According to a Pew survey last year， nearly half of all Americans have an unfavourable opinion of China. As the presidential elections approach， these attitudes will surely deepen， because neither the Republicans nor the Democrats will want to risk being accused of being ‘soft’ on China.Regardless whether President Trump is re－elected， or another Republican or Democrat wins， these sentiments will not go away. |
